Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0947…9e92 weather 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-15%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$34
other 18% −$11
crypto 11% −$9
finance 8% −$41
politics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -17.4% -25.2% 2% 0% -25.1%
≤30d 52 -17.4% -25.2% 2% 0% -25.1%
≤90d 52 -17.4% -25.2% 2% 0% -25.1%
all 52 -17.4% -25.2% 2% 0% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 0% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 0% -32.3%
15% -38.9% 0% -38.8%
20% -44.9% 0% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 −$9 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $11 −$3 -24%
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $47 20m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $49 20m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 41¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 41¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 56¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records