Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0944…9c85 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$40
sports 17% −$3
other 16% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -11.0% -19.5% 46% 43% -8.4%
≤30d 56 -11.0% -19.5% 46% 43% -8.4%
≤90d 56 -11.0% -19.5% 46% 43% -8.4%
all 56 -11.0% -19.5% 46% 43% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 43% -8.4%
10% -27.2% 39% -17.1%
15% -34.2% 34% -25.1%
20% -40.7% 29% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$22 +197%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$13 +252%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a BUY 22¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.55 · official $78.55 · 103 history records