Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0943…24b0 world 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-21%) realized −$48 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$19
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$35
politics 23% −$19
crypto 9% −$14
other 5% −$4
tech 5% −$11
weather 4% −$5
culture 2% +$1
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 64% 7% -14.6%
≤30d 43 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 23% -16.6%
≤90d 62 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 16% -23.4%
all 62 -18.0% -25.8% 40% 16% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 16% -23.4%
10% -32.9% 8% -30.8%
15% -39.4% 6% -37.4%
20% -45.3% 2% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage61d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 13¢ $31 $7 −$23 (-77%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 57¢ $12 $2 −$11 (-87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 01 $5 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $20 +$1 +7%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $6 −$4 -71%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 27 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $6 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $16 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $7 +$3 +40%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th May 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $13 −$6 -44%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $2 −$1 -36%
Spread: FC Petrolul Ploieşti (-1.5) Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $0 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 68¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $2 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $2 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $2 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $3 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 170 history records