Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x093b…771f other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+9%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$16
crypto 24% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤30d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -6.9%
all 4 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 25% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 25% -6.9%
10% -14.0% 25% -15.8%
15% -22.3% 25% -23.9%
20% -29.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$9 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage11d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 −$21 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$37 +44%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $91 −$5 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $123 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $86 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $86 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $86 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $86 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $91 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records