Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x093b…bcc6 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-6%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$148
other 18% +$3
sports 13% −$13
tech 9% +$2
world 1% +$14
finance 1% −$12
culture 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤30d 8 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 8 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% -5.5%
all 68 -13.9% -22.1% 49% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 41% -14.3%
10% -29.5% 34% -22.5%
15% -36.3% 25% -30.0%
20% -42.6% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage106d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$6 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$13 +64%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $35 +$14 +41%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of March? Mar 18 $30 −$6 -18%
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Mar 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16? Mar 17 $30 +$16 +53%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? Mar 16 $80 −$18 -22%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Mar 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 16 $30 +$16 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 16 $36 −$24 -66%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 +$16 +78%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 16 $46 +$38 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Mar 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 15 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 15 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 15 $80 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$26 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 15 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 15 $80 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 15 $30 −$21 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 15 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 15 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $30 $0 +2%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $55 +$11 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 15? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 15? Mar 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $20 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 14d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 43¢ $15 14d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $20 15d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $20 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 15d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 90d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 92d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 100d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 100d
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 101d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 19? SELL Down 55¢ $29 101d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 19? BUY Down 57¢ $30 101d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of March? SELL Yes 54¢ $24 101d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of March? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 103d
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 103d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16? BUY No 66¢ $30 103d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 103d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 103d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? SELL No 39¢ $11 103d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 103d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 103d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 103d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 103d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16? BUY No 68¢ $20 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $30 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.20 · official $30.20 (match) · 134 history records