Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0939…39cf other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$287 (+18%) realized +$291 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$55
14 days+$126
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$3
sports 31% +$223
world 1% −$13
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.4% -26.2% 47% 47% -4.6%
≤30d 28 -33.1% -39.5% 39% 39% -2.4%
≤90d 29 -23.6% -30.9% 41% 41% +2.9%
all 29 -23.6% -30.9% 41% 41% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 41% +2.9%
10% -37.5% 41% -7.0%
15% -43.5% 34% -15.9%
20% -49.1% 24% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$29 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage54d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $194 +$86 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 +$140 +102%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 +$58 +64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$41 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 +$24 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$30 +82%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $368 +$206 +56%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $39 +$94 +243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $194 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $104 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $127 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 42h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $130 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $368 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 11d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.46 · official $46.46 (match) · 66 history records