Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0938…9bda
crypto · 33 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$200 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$206 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage144d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$70
14 days+$16
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 47¢ 56¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 11¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-95%)
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $154 +$36 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t May 15 $20 +$81 +405%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? Mar 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 13 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 13 $13 −$11 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 12 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 12 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $5 +$13 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 12 $2 +$9 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 12 $5 +$4 +86%
New pandemic in 2026? Feb 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $86 +$29 +34%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jan 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 36% +$23
politics 34% −$257
crypto 23% −$3
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 77¢ $41 12m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 1¢ $1 12m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 47¢ $51 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 51¢ $39 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $41 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $51 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 68¢ $11 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 61¢ $18 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 91¢ $72 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $52 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 89¢ $55 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 89¢ $65 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 68¢ $51 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $54 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $116 3d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after BUY Yes 3¢ $4 11d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes 12¢ $101 28d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes 2¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.2% +7.8% 100% 100% +8.4%
≤30d 5 +72.6% +56.2% 80% 80% +11.0%
≤90d 11 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 36% -39.0%
all 31 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 52% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 52% -25.7%
10% -0.4% 35% -32.8%
15% -10.0% 23% -39.3%
20% -18.8% 19% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.79 · official $31.79 (match) · 118 history records