Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0936…3833
sports · 24 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$333 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open −$395
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$503
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$395
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $852 $461 −$390 (-46%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 65¢ 59¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 23¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 +$5 +41%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$10 +212%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$8 +146%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$6 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $39 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 +$3 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $16 +$9 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$3 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$414
sports 23% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 78¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 84¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 59¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 17¢ $4 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $5 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $5 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $13 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $6 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 15h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 65¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 65¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 87¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 59¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $13 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $11 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 98¢ $17 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $6 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 77¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $8 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 47¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +27.0% +14.9% 73% 73% +6.7%
≤30d 22 +27.0% +14.9% 73% 73% +6.7%
≤90d 22 +27.0% +14.9% 73% 73% +6.7%
all 22 +27.0% +14.9% 73% 73% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.9% 73% +6.7%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 73% -3.5%
15% -6.1% 59% -12.8%
20% -15.3% 45% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.38 · official $503.38 (match) · 74 history records