Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
09 0x0936…5e5a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.1%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.1%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.1%
all 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 67% -4.1%
10% -18.9% 67% -13.2%
15% -26.8% 67% -21.6%
20% -33.9% 33% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$49 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $49 $57 +$8 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$37 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.02 · official $114.03 (match) · 7 history records