Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x0934…f376 other 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 205d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,443 (+6%) realized +$1,501 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%188W / 91L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$182
14 days−$185
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$904
other 41% +$804
politics 8% +$134
culture 4% +$120
finance 3% −$90
weather 2% +$43
tech 1% −$63
sports 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 53% 33% -25.1%
≤30d 69 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 39% -10.2%
≤90d 127 +31.4% +18.9% 65% 43% -1.6%
all 279 +37.5% +24.4% 67% 43% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 43% -0.0%
10% +12.5% 28% -9.6%
15% +1.6% 23% -18.3%
20% -8.3% 19% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$3,529
Realized+$1,501
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses188 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions39
Markets (closed)279 / 318
History coverage205d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $807 $814 +$7 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $554 $628 +$74 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $465 $502 +$37 (+8%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $348 $387 +$40 (+11%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $329 $350 +$21 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 85¢ $163 $175 +$12 (+8%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 92¢ 98¢ $138 $147 +$9 (+7%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? No 89¢ 90¢ $111 $112 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+12%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 52¢ 34¢ $130 $87 −$43 (-33%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $37 $45 +$7 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 63¢ 32¢ $29 $15 −$14 (-48%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 46¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 72¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $183 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$9 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $34 −$7 -21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +149%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $38 +$10 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$11 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $235 +$11 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $91 −$40 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $1 +$4 +307%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 08 $3 +$7 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 08 $33 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 08 $31 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 5? Jun 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 08 $539 +$33 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5? Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $33 −$17 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $710 +$8 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $95 −$77 -81%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $85 +$3 +3%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$24 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $333 +$72 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $387 +$10 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $191 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $9 −$3 -36%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? May 30 $17 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $94 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $567 +$49 +9%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $66 26m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $66 30m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 51m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 57m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $164 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $153 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $161 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $166 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $176 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $146 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $15 29h
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $19 35h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $7 46h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $10 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,528.90 · official $3,528.92 (match) · 3500 history records