Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x092f…d9fd sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,067 (+12%) realized +$895 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 37L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$880
7 days+$936
14 days+$1,116
30 days+$1,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$150
other 36% +$1,351
crypto 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 55% +0.9%
≤30d 97 +5.5% -4.6% 62% 60% +2.1%
≤90d 97 +5.5% -4.6% 62% 60% +2.1%
all 97 +5.5% -4.6% 62% 60% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 60% +2.1%
10% -13.7% 57% -7.7%
15% -22.1% 41% -16.6%
20% -29.7% 33% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$71 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$895
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 37
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage8d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 43¢ 80¢ $105 $196 +$91 (+86%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $68 $113 +$45 (+67%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Türkiye 76¢ 98¢ $68 $88 +$20 (+29%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 73¢ 94¢ $58 $74 +$16 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $48 +$19 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $48 +$21 +44%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $49 +$44 +90%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 26 $69 +$38 +55%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $69 +$53 +76%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $69 +$44 +64%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $59 +$3 +6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 +$68 +78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 +$87 +99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $48 +$118 +246%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 +$27 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 +$67 +99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 +$45 +66%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $89 +$23 +26%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $38 +$58 +153%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $107 +$180 +168%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $89 +$19 +21%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $90 −$76 -84%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $360 +$167 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $372 +$170 +46%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $119 +$55 +46%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $170 −$170 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $170 +$44 +26%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $119 +$57 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $230 +$72 +31%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $69 +$45 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $198 +$116 +59%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $68 +$62 +91%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $38 +$31 +81%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $170 +$110 +65%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $98 +$142 +145%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $129 +$67 +52%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$62 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 76¢ $68 47m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 32¢ $38 48m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $69 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 73¢ $58 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $69 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $113 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $39 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $62 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $49 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $69 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Tunisia 64¢ $69 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $59 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $48 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 71¢ $48 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $69 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $38 5h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 28¢ $48 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $88 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $88 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $88 29h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $68 29h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $38 29h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 59¢ $68 29h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $112 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 29h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $38 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $38 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $38 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.12 · official $471.12 (match) · 253 history records