Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x092c…33d1 crypto 293 markets active 6d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,352 (-5%) realized −$1,352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%134W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,673
14 days−$2,842
30 days−$2,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,631
other 3% −$156
politics 1% +$7
world 1% −$16
finance 0% +$11
sports 0% +$11
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -28.5% -35.3% 42% 34% -30.1%
≤30d 273 -23.7% -31.0% 44% 36% -19.5%
≤90d 293 -21.2% -28.7% 46% 38% -19.1%
all 293 -21.2% -28.7% 46% 38% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -19.1%
10% -35.5% 28% -26.9%
15% -41.8% 15% -33.9%
20% -47.5% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$42 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses134 / 159
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage73d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $112 −$61 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $156 +$59 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $136 −$100 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $82 +$61 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $158 −$55 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $112 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $112 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $148 −$50 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $112 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $64 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1165 history records