Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
09 0x092a…8577 sports 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$547 (+18%) realized +$547 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%69W / 106L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$65
14 days−$86
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$574
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 28% +17.4%
≤30d 131 +14.7% +3.8% 41% 31% +12.0%
≤90d 175 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 31% +9.6%
all 175 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 31% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 31% +9.6%
10% -16.1% 29% -0.9%
15% -24.2% 26% -10.5%
20% -31.6% 20% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses69 / 106
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage40d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $40 +$74 +184%
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Adan Freire Da Silva Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $5 +$4 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $30 +$11 +35%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $6 −$3 -49%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $10 +$4 +35%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $8 −$5 -62%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2 −$1 -36%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $7 −$5 -74%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $8 −$4 -55%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $9 −$5 -51%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $8 −$3 -39%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $5 −$4 -88%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 13 $5 −$4 -75%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 100¢ $115 1h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 34¢ $40 3h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 99¢ $40 4h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova BUY Marianna Shikhanova 99¢ $40 4h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Adan Freire Da Silva SELL Dylan Dietrich 81¢ $4 4h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Adan Freire Da Silva BUY Dylan Dietrich 80¢ $4 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery SELL Roman Andres Burruchaga 24¢ $9 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 13¢ $5 21h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 80¢ $1 23h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 84¢ $1 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko SELL Antonia Ruzic 62¢ $10 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko BUY Antonia Ruzic 30¢ $5 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 70¢ $31 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 56¢ $25 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Daria Snigur 32¢ $8 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 23¢ $1 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 55¢ $9 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 29¢ $5 3d
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov SELL Nikita Mashtakov 100¢ $10 3d
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov BUY Nikita Mashtakov 98¢ $10 3d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 22¢ $4 3d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 23¢ $3 3d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 22¢ $1 3d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 54¢ $5 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 35¢ $0 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 35¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $14 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records