Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0927…5e30 crypto 620 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%216W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$66
14 days−$96
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$22
sports 25% −$90
other 18% −$167
world 3% −$9
politics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 413 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 40% -11.9%
≤90d 619 -4.6% -13.7% 35% 32% -12.0%
all 619 -4.6% -13.7% 35% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 32% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 29% -20.4%
15% -29.5% 25% -28.1%
20% -36.4% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses216 / 403
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 620
History coverage38d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$11 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$22 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$24 +211%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$20 +124%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$25 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +91%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$10 +252%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$9 +53%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 53m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.89 · official $2.89 (match) · 1433 history records