Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0927…7512
other · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$6 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage387d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$4 -26%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gualberto Cusi Mamani win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 06 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $37 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $11 +$15 +133%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 30 $24 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$2
world 32% −$5
politics 15% +$14
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $34 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $34 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $25 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $10 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $4 22h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $33 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $32 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $22 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $36 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $36 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $30 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $10 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $41 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 12% -10.4%
≤30d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 8% -10.9%
≤90d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 8% -10.9%
all 36 +4.4% -5.5% 31% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -14.6% 6% -17.7%
15% -22.8% 6% -25.6%
20% -30.4% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.22 · official $37.22 (match) · 94 history records