Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0926…3903 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-7%) realized −$90 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%62W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$120
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$112
other 11% −$24
crypto 9% −$1
politics 4% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 30% -24.4%
≤30d 149 -6.0% -14.9% 42% 29% -21.2%
≤90d 149 -6.0% -14.9% 42% 29% -21.2%
all 149 -6.0% -14.9% 42% 29% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 29% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 21% -28.8%
15% -30.5% 17% -35.6%
20% -37.3% 10% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 87
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 80¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $30 +$16 +52%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $23 +$11 +49%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $15 −$4 -25%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $50 −$34 -67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $17 −$14 -83%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$1 -19%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$1 -21%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $13 +$2 +13%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$2 +39%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $45 −$1 -3%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 +$3 +25%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $17 +$3 +16%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $16 −$6 -34%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +51%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$13 +238%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $6 −$3 -47%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 +$6 +92%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7 +$1 +9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$2 -38%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 +$2 +41%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $7 −$4 -49%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $8 +$9 +110%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 1h
EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 1h
EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $5 2h
EC Juventude vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 5h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $35 11h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 16h
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 17h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 29¢ $12 18h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Argentina $16 18h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 24¢ $9 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $3 20h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $6 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $12 23h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $7 23h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $4 23h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $5 23h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 27h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $41 38h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $46 38h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 30¢ $10 38h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 91¢ $7 41h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $5 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 44h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $5 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.12 · official $57.12 (match) · 318 history records