Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0925…8df3 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
politics 17% −$1
other 16% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 7% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage288d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $41 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $12 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $31 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 -9%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 08 $34 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $41 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $28 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $6 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $7 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $29 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $12 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $42 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $44 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $44 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $22 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $18 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $41 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records