Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0925…dda4 sports 106 markets active 6h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$548 (+11%) realized +$658 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%53W / 45L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$201
14 days+$256
30 days+$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$714
other 17% −$143
crypto 2% −$28
world 1% −$33
culture 0% −$21
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.7% -7.0% 52% 52% -0.1%
≤30d 98 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% +3.3%
≤90d 98 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% +3.3%
all 98 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 54% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 54% +3.3%
10% -15.4% 54% -6.6%
15% -23.6% 54% -15.6%
20% -31.1% 50% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$658
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses53 / 45
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions8
Markets (closed)98 / 106
History coverage23d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $101 $73 −$28 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 61¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 43¢ $68 $54 −$14 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-53%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 19¢ 19¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $33 $5 −$28 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $35 +$29 +84%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $23 +$16 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $117 +$89 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $39 +$44 +114%
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $58 +$92 +158%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $48 +$41 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$52 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$40 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$28 +80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$18 -58%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $92 +$82 +89%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $71 +$38 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $41 +$68 +166%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$15 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$36 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$41 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $48 +$39 +79%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$87 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $49 +$32 +66%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $58 +$35 +61%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $56 +$39 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $49 +$22 +46%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $31 +$28 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $66 +$55 +83%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $87 +$59 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 6h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 65¢ $64 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 34¢ $35 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $38 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $50 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $26 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $23 14h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $19 28h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $24 42h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $2 42h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $31 42h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $117 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $8 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $83 3d
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes $15 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $39 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $50 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $48 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $41 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 52¢ $58 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $111 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.06 · official $326.06 (match) · 233 history records