Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x0923…2a89 world 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$13
other 22% +$4
finance 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -1.0% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 71 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage476d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $139 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $168 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $154 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $139 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $411 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $255 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $141 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $13 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1,159 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $141 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $141 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $224 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $154 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $149 −$12 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,156 +$2 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? Jul 03 $1 $0 -24%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $139 11m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $117 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $87 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $150 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $148 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $168 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $168 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $66 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $67 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $70 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $66 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.38 · official $139.50 (match) · 246 history records