Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

09 0x0920…d23a other 19 markets active 7d ago coverage 145d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,633 (-39%) realized −$2,414 · open −$219

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%2W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$359per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$1,847

30 days−$1,847

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-67.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	8	-88.6%	-89.6%	0%	0%	-54.6%
≤90d	14	-58.6%	-62.6%	14%	14%	-35.7%
all	16	-63.8%	-67.2%	12%	12%	-47.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.2%	12%	-47.2%
10%	-70.4%	12%	-52.3%
15%	-73.2%	12%	-56.9%
20%	-75.9%	12%	-61.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -39% → late -89% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$444 vs −$243 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage

Net worth$512

Realized−$2,414

Unrealized−$219

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses2 / 14

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage145d

Avg bet$359

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$700	$490	−$210 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-17%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$11	$6	−$6 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$164	−$160	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$472	−$460	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$308	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$57	−$55	-97%
Senegal to score first vs. France?	Jun 16	$306	−$300	-98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	Jun 15	$308	−$300	-98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Jun 15	$2,029	−$171	-8%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	May 23	$200	+$406	+203%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an	May 23	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	May 23	$250	−$250	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours	May 23	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	May 23	$135	−$135	-100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	May 23	$570	+$483	+85%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Jan 25	$581	−$581	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 25	$500	−$500	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$164	7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$221	7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$252	7d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$720	9d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	9d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	9d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$57	9d
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$153	9d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	9d
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$153	9d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	BUY Yes	14¢	$308	10d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	SELL No	50¢	$1,857	10d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	52¢	$2,029	33d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	59¢	$150	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	BUY Yes	15¢	$111	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	62¢	$220	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute	BUY Yes	24¢	$24	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute	BUY Yes	45¢	$200	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an	BUY Yes	2¢	$40	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY No	4¢	$81	152d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	26¢	$500	152d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Gaethje	33¢	$200	152d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY No	4¢	$500	152d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.17 · official $513.30 (match) · 45 history records