Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x091f…f40a sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-3%) realized −$72 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate91%90W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day115.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$65
weather 12% +$33
crypto 6% −$83
finance 3% +$15
other 3% +$15
world 3% −$97
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +2.0% -7.8% 91% 91% -13.5%
≤30d 99 +2.0% -7.8% 91% 91% -13.5%
≤90d 99 +2.0% -7.8% 91% 91% -13.5%
all 99 +2.0% -7.8% 91% 91% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 91% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -21.8%
15% -24.6% 0% -29.3%
20% -32.0% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$47 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$881
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses90 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions19
Markets (closed)99 / 119
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day115.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $90 $101 +$11 (+12%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? No 89¢ 84¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Chicago Cubs 89¢ 78¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 89¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 88¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? No 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 17 $99 +$13 +13%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $22 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 36m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $43 37m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $57 37m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $14 39m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $16 39m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $27 40m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 89¢ $73 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 89¢ $27 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $0 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $100 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 89¢ $100 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 89¢ $100 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 89¢ $100 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 89¢ $100 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 89¢ $0 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 89¢ $73 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 89¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 89¢ $100 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 89¢ $53 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 89¢ $24 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 89¢ $0 5h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 89¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.93 · official $880.93 (match) · 258 history records