Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x091c…402f crypto 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%247W / 14L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$58
other 20% −$8
economics 6% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 261 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses247 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage247d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 23? Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 22? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $204 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? Jun 09 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $203 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 25? May 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 24? May 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 15? May 15 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 15 $199 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $198 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 05 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $198 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 28? Mar 28 $197 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $197 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 26h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $206 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $206 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $205 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $204 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $204 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $203 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $203 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $203 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $201 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $202 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $182 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $182 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $182 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $121 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $60 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $181 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $181 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $181 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $81 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $180 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.77 · official $206.77 (match) · 578 history records