Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x091b…078a other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate78%80W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$2
sports 19% −$1
culture 9% −$21
politics 2% +$2
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 17% -3.1%
≤30d 23 +6.2% -4.0% 78% 30% -5.5%
≤90d 90 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 27% -12.4%
all 103 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 26% -12.1%
10% -18.1% 15% -20.5%
15% -26.0% 5% -28.2%
20% -33.2% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses80 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage102d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$4 +20%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 +24%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $3 $0 +9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4 +$1 +24%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 $0 -14%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 4.5 May 13 $2 $0 +7%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $5 $0 +2%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 $0 -26%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $53 $0 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $3 $0 +9%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $2 $0 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 06 $21 $0 -0%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $2 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 6d
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $6 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 89¢ $2 6d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? SELL No 95¢ $23 10d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 10d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 77¢ $10 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 93¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 283 history records