Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x091b…469a sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$13
other 35% +$6
weather 12% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 41% -11.8%
≤30d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 41% -11.8%
≤90d 29 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 41% -11.8%
all 29 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 41% -11.8%
10% -23.3% 38% -20.2%
15% -30.7% 38% -27.9%
20% -37.5% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 +$19 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$9 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 3d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 78¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $8 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 96¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.96 · official $27.96 (match) · 53 history records