Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x091a…db09 crypto 718 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,246 (-14%) realized −$5,246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%395W / 323L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$214
14 days−$214
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$5,325
sports 7% +$51
world 2% +$11
other 2% −$201
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% −$12
finance 0% +$9
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 25% -14.4%
≤30d 108 -8.9% -17.6% 52% 36% -13.2%
≤90d 718 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 43% -22.7%
all 718 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 43% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 43% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 40% -30.1%
15% -32.4% 38% -36.9%
20% -39.0% 34% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$52 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses395 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)718 / 718
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 718 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $801 +$18 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $821 +$34 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $721 +$46 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 +$3 +2%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $813 +$11 +1%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -88%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -65%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -50%
Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -70%
Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -42%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -15%
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -38%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -23%
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -37%
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -41%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -15%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -29%
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -29%
Spain snap election called in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 98¢ $801 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 96¢ $20 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 96¢ $801 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 21¢ $105 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 94¢ $721 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $102 37h
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL No $0 39h
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 39h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No $0 39h
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 39h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 99¢ $813 3d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $1 3d
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 19¢ $1 3d
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? SELL No 15¢ $2 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 34¢ $3 3d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? SELL No 32¢ $3 3d
Over 6 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? SELL No 30¢ $2 3d
Over 10 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? SELL No 57¢ $3 3d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $3 3d
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL No 49¢ $4 3d
Will GBP/USD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026? SELL No 46¢ $3 3d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 45¢ $4 3d
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31? SELL No 57¢ $3 3d
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL No 49¢ $4 3d
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $3 3d
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? SELL No 45¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records