Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x091a…bc5f crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -53.2% -57.6% 21% 21% -33.2%
≤30d 14 -53.2% -57.6% 21% 21% -33.2%
≤90d 14 -53.2% -57.6% 21% 21% -33.2%
all 14 -53.2% -57.6% 21% 21% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 21% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -61.7% 14% -39.6%
15% -65.4% 14% -45.4%
20% -68.8% 14% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$5 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records