Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0915…795b sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%23W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$6
other 23% −$4
politics 20% −$3
economics 9% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 231 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses23 / 208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage175d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $44 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $174 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $123 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $195 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $118 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $276 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 15 $54 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 97¢ $35 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 97¢ $21 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 97¢ $15 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 26d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 92¢ $43 39d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $44 39d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 123d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 123d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $44 123d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $44 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $42 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $43 123d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 123d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $48 123d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $44 123d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $44 123d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 123d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 123d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $46 123d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $46 123d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 123d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 123d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $50 123d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $50 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $48 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $48 123d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 123d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.78 · official $36.78 (match) · 894 history records