Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x0915…ba2c other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,720 (-50%) realized −$3,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,487per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$4,187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -66.0% -69.2% 20% 20% -61.0%
≤30d 5 -66.0% -69.2% 20% 20% -61.0%
≤90d 5 -66.0% -69.2% 20% 20% -61.0%
all 5 -66.0% -69.2% 20% 20% -61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.2% 20% -61.0%
10% -72.2% 20% -64.7%
15% -74.9% 20% -68.1%
20% -77.3% 20% -71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,307 vs −$1,374 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,487
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $414 −$403 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,758 −$2,710 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $675 −$659 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,723 −$1,723 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,865 +$1,307 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 13¢ $414 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 40¢ $2,758 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 17¢ $675 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 19¢ $1,723 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $1,512 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $480 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $691 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $489 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $1,865 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records