Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x0911…1b9c sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+10%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$36
other 9% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 57% +26.4%
≤30d 14 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 57% +26.4%
≤90d 14 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 57% +26.4%
all 14 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 57% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 57% +26.4%
10% -8.8% 50% +14.3%
15% -17.6% 43% +3.3%
20% -25.7% 43% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$30 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -53%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +93%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$6 +51%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 11m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $81 32m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 27¢ $2 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $5 21h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 21¢ $5 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $3 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 18¢ $4 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 60¢ $7 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $6 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $10 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $5 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $5 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $1.07 (match) · 32 history records