Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

09 0x090f…e39b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$49 (+27%) realized +$56 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR88%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown15%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +88%

net ROI/market (all)+10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+22.5%	+10.8%	88%	88%	+17.7%
≤30d	8	+22.5%	+10.8%	88%	88%	+17.7%
≤90d	8	+22.5%	+10.8%	88%	88%	+17.7%
all	8	+22.5%	+10.8%	88%	88%	+17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.8%	88%	+17.7%
10%	+0.2%	75%	+6.5%
15%	-9.5%	50%	-3.8%
20%	-18.4%	38%	-13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×7.51 per $1 lost it wins $7.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$56

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown15%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	85¢	66¢	$30	$23	−$7 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$10	+51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$44	+$5	+11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$3	+31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$23	+$15	+67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$11	+53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$16	+$4	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$5	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$44	30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$10	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$23	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$7	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$16	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$11	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.47 · official $23.47 (match) · 17 history records