trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +152.4% | +128.4% | 100% | 100% | +128.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +152.4% | +128.4% | 100% | 100% | +128.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +39.7% | +26.4% | 67% | 67% | +4.1% |
| all | 5 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 60% | 40% | -17.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.7% | 40% | -17.8% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 40% | -25.7% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 40% | -32.8% |
| 20% | -30.5% | 40% | -39.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | $180 | $187 | +$8 (+4%) |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 64¢ | $54 | $55 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 54¢ | 76¢ | $22 | $30 | +$9 (+40%) |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 46¢ | 14¢ | $81 | $26 | −$56 (-68%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | No | 36¢ | 13¢ | $38 | $14 | −$25 (-64%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 6¢ | $19 | $6 | −$12 (-66%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 25¢ | 2¢ | $42 | $3 | −$39 (-93%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? | Jun 20 | $8 | +$12 | +152% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 16 | $47 | +$31 | +67% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Mar 25 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Mar 06 | $116 | −$116 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 06 | $772 | +$14 | +2% |