Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x090a…27e7 crypto 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$73,642 (+132%) realized +$73,642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%142W / 427L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day158.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,517
sports 1% +$393
other 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 393 -71.1% -73.9% 10% 10% -80.2%
≤30d 569 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 24% -55.8%
≤90d 569 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 24% -55.8%
all 569 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 24% -55.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.7% 24% -55.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.6% 24% -60.0%
15% -58.1% 20% -63.9%
20% -62.2% 16% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$188 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses142 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)569 / 250
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$223
Trades / day158.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 569 Trades
no open positions (396 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $433 −$433 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$74 -284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $426 −$426 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$139 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$188 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $33 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $45 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records