Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x090a…8da8 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-16%) realized −$160 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$159
other 4% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 67% 67% -29.6%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 70% -25.1%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 70% -25.1%
all 10 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 70% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 70% -25.1%
10% -20.5% 40% -32.3%
15% -28.2% 30% -38.8%
20% -35.2% 10% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$97 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage16d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 66¢ 90¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$39 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 +$21 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $40 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $30 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $91 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $56 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 29h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $140 47h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 71¢ $101 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $101 10d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Arsenal FC 100¢ $122 15d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 82¢ $101 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.41 · official $69.41 (match) · 24 history records