Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0909…78dc other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized −$1,757 · open +$1,777
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate73%166W / 60L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$12,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$340
7 days+$437
14 days+$310
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$309
sports 15% −$898
tech 13% +$181
crypto 3% +$168
economics 2% +$58
finance 2% +$52
world 2% +$92
politics 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.9% -6.9% 84% 58% +0.2%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 56% -2.9%
≤90d 70 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 56% -7.6%
all 226 -5.1% -14.2% 73% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 48% -11.5%
10% -22.4% 28% -20.0%
15% -29.9% 9% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$135 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$12,049
Realized−$1,757
Unrealized+$1,777
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses166 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)226 / 235
History coverage230d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $2,326 $4,566 +$2,241 (+96%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2,700 $2,115 −$585 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1,246 $2,011 +$765 (+61%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1,470 $1,187 −$283 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,030 $944 −$86 (-8%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $700 $439 −$261 (-37%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 +$196 +65%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $203 −$19 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $403 +$37 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$24 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $201 +$59 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $201 +$34 +17%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $200 +$129 +65%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $221 +$44 +20%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $100 +$14 +14%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $200 +$46 +23%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 +$38 +38%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $200 +$73 +36%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? Apr 30 $251 +$15 +6%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? Apr 30 $51 +$57 +111%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $510 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $201 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $201 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $183 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $100 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $101 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $200 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $201 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $300 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $100 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $440 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $201 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $301 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $201 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $403 12d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $301 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 12d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 2¢ $5 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $200 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $201 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,048.67 · official $12,048.81 (match) · 704 history records