Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0905…e5c0 crypto 1011 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,916 (-22%) realized −$3,914 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%416W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day74.9pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$232
crypto 35% −$228
politics 10% −$2
other 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 38% -3.8%
≤30d 910 -8.2% -16.9% 42% 39% -10.2%
≤90d 1004 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 38% -11.6%
all 1004 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 38% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -20.1%
15% -32.8% 33% -27.8%
20% -39.3% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$3,914
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses416 / 588
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1004 / 1011
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1004 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $61 $56 −$5 (-7%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 71¢ 71¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Bergs 51¢ 47¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $28 +$74 +267%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 28 $75 +$10 +14%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 28 $78 −$9 -12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $48 +$4 +8%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) Jun 28 $22 −$21 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 28 $37 +$43 +115%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 28 $29 +$17 +56%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $36 +$44 +122%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 28 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 28 $16 +$24 +152%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $35 +$25 +73%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $18 +$19 +108%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -11%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $22 −$15 -68%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $33 +$29 +88%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 +$2 +133%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $31 +$15 +46%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $26 +$24 +89%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $34 +$41 +120%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 +$3 +20%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$74 +146%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $29 +$21 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $18 +$32 +186%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $32 +$22 +69%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 24 $48 +$66 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $29 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $88 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Angels 85¢ $85 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) SELL Athletics 70¢ $69 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $12 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 51¢ $21 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 65¢ $51 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Athletics 78¢ $78 2h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 74¢ $75 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $17 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Atlanta Dream 19¢ $6 2h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 31¢ $4 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 35¢ $21 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 27¢ $6 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 59¢ $48 3h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $5 3h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $19 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 52¢ $21 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $2 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $8 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $1 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $10 3h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $4 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 22¢ $9 4h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $9 4h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $25 4h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.69 · official $301.70 (match) · 3500 history records