Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0904…5f63 politics 130 markets active 3d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$5
politics 38% −$5
sports 8% −$27
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 124 +2.9% -6.9% 6% 5% -9.6%
all 129 +1.3% -8.3% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage109d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 18d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 18d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $76 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 360 history records