Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0902…baf4 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$10
politics 25% $0
other 20% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 4% +$1
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 0% -11.4%
all 36 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage295d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $20 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $33 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $14 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $84 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $84 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $16 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $31 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $24 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $6 46h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $7 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $34 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $29 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records