Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0900…be35 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$29 (-11%) realized +$42 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$136
weather 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -47.4%
all 5 -78.1% -80.2% 20% 0% -87.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.2% 0% -87.5%
10% -82.1% 0% -88.7%
15% -83.8% 0% -89.8%
20% -85.4% 0% -90.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage222d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 22¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 13? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 Apr 13 $4 −$4 -96%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $124 −$24 -19%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 12¢ $1 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $31 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 31¢ $19 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $5 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 36¢ $5 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 11¢ $5 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 BUY Yes 15¢ $4 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 67d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $24 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 55¢ $134 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $100 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $36 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 18 history records