Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fe…355f sports 781 markets active 9h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$373 (-5%) realized −$373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%493W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$124
14 days−$46
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$221
other 43% −$216
politics 0% +$9
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -15.1% -23.2% 56% 56% -25.7%
≤30d 451 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 66% -13.8%
≤90d 781 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 50% -15.0%
all 781 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 50% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 50% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 35% -23.1%
15% -28.2% 21% -30.5%
20% -35.2% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses493 / 288
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)781 / 781
History coverage75d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 781 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$6 +46%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$14 +92%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$8 +124%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$5 +63%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$6 +77%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 73¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 70¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 61¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 68¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 47¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 45¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 51¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 60¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 56¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 69¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 67¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 81¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 88¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 92¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 38¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 90¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 85¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance 66¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance 69¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 38¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 52¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 62¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 64¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2293 history records