Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fe…f0e0 crypto 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%123W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$29
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 53% -14.7%
≤30d 205 +0.6% -8.9% 58% 57% -9.9%
≤90d 219 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 55% -11.1%
all 219 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 55% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 55% -11.1%
10% -18.7% 55% -19.6%
15% -26.6% 54% -27.4%
20% -33.8% 53% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses123 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 219
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records