Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08fb…8b8b sports 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,574 (-18%) realized −$2,573 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%173W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$504
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$481
sports 34% −$837
economics 8% −$553
crypto 8% −$89
politics 8% +$64
world 6% −$242
weather 2% −$107
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +53.2% +38.6% 80% 80% +17.2%
≤30d 5 +53.2% +38.6% 80% 80% +17.2%
≤90d 345 -13.5% -21.8% 43% 42% -28.6%
all 383 -11.1% -19.6% 45% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -24.7%
10% -27.3% 41% -31.9%
15% -34.3% 39% -38.5%
20% -40.7% 30% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$2,573
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses173 / 210
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)383 / 388
History coverage227d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $136 +$57 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$148 +146%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Jun 20 $207 +$231 +111%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$68 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $268 −$264 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $158 −$156 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $107 +$51 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 02 $11 +$9 +83%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 May 01 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $21 +$8 +39%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $7 −$3 -35%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $19 +$11 +55%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $8 +$12 +152%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $9 +$11 +129%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $15 −$14 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $27 −$26 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $28 +$12 +44%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 26 $25 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 26 $20 −$19 -94%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -94%
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NK Varaždin: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Apr 26 $20 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5 Apr 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $349 −$46 -13%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5) Apr 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $140 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 50¢ $102 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $136 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 43¢ $102 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 40¢ $102 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will BUY 47¢ $207 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $152 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $116 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 34¢ $157 6d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 68¢ $158 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 67¢ $107 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 51d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 51d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 51d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 51d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 51d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 51d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 51d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 51d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 51d
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 52d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 52d
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 52d
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 52d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $9 52d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $3 52d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $3 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.89 · official $236.89 · 965 history records