Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08f9…a4d4 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$4
other 22% −$3
crypto 22% $0
politics 20% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 40% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 0% -10.6%
all 22 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -10.5%
10% -25.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -39.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage426d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $9 $0 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 −$4 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Open Championship? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $66 −$4 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $125 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $40 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $16 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $19 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $18 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records