Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08f8…a813 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,224 (+1%) realized +$1,225 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$99
politics 40% −$62
sports 9% +$1,076
world 2% +$61
crypto 2% +$2
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$3
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 +1.7% -8.0% 10% 3% -8.4%
all 132 +4.4% -5.6% 23% 14% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 14% -8.7%
10% -14.6% 14% -17.4%
15% -22.9% 14% -25.4%
20% -30.4% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,267) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$8 · ×7.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized+$1,225
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage160d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $734 $734 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $310 $309 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,067 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,077 −$5 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $3,725 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,946 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $824 +$2 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,624 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $607 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,163 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,188 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 29 $1,145 +$681 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $7,351 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,614 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,021 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5,148 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $2,729 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,496 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $1,207 +$630 +52%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 28 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,140 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $348 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $310 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $348 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 5h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $745 22h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $746 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $471 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $263 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,112 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,442 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,443 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,486 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,488 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,265 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,267 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,298 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,300 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,068 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.08 · official $1,043.08 (match) · 421 history records