Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08f7…f30f other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$11 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.8% -47.3% 13% 13% -24.6%
≤30d 15 -41.8% -47.3% 13% 13% -24.6%
≤90d 15 -41.8% -47.3% 13% 13% -24.6%
all 15 -41.8% -47.3% 13% 13% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 13% -24.6%
10% -52.4% 13% -31.8%
15% -57.0% 13% -38.4%
20% -61.2% 13% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$27 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$51 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $8 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $25.50 · 24 history records