Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08f6…cd51 sports 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$613 (-6%) realized −$608 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%176W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$126
14 days−$94
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,008
world 11% −$144
other 6% −$84
weather 2% −$29
crypto 1% −$51
politics 1% −$62
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -36.6% -42.7% 30% 30% -31.5%
≤30d 145 -27.5% -34.4% 35% 34% -23.6%
≤90d 491 -19.3% -27.0% 36% 34% -23.1%
all 491 -19.3% -27.0% 36% 34% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 34% -23.1%
10% -33.9% 32% -30.5%
15% -40.3% 31% -37.2%
20% -46.2% 30% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses176 / 315
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions4
Markets (closed)491 / 495
History coverage92d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Vitality 60¢ 84¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 55¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 231 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $15 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $11 +$12 +109%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$4 -30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $19 +$7 +35%
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 19 $11 −$3 -27%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$8 +82%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $20 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$7 +60%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $13 −$4 -28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $18 −$9 -50%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $12 +$9 +70%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$2 -15%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $18 −$3 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$5 -33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $13 +$13 +100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $68 −$38 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $24 −$9 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $45 −$7 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$4 -22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $27 +$19 +70%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $27 −$1 -4%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $29 −$25 -85%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $12 21m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $11 40m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $21 43m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $11 47m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 58¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 40¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Oxuji Esports 44¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 65¢ $10 13h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $15 13h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 47¢ $11 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $24 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 40¢ $4 16h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 38¢ $9 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 22¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 77¢ $23 19h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL Fuego 100¢ $20 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $4 20h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Contra 28¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 49¢ $15 20h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL NRG Academy 100¢ $20 20h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Fuego 40¢ $8 21h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG Academy 100¢ $18 21h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG Academy 55¢ $10 22h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 49¢ $10 23h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 36¢ $3 23h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 55¢ $16 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.81 · official $29.48 · 1070 history records