Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ee…724c crypto 1494 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-1%) realized −$275 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate75%1126W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days−$22
14 days−$153
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$356
sports 12% +$27
other 2% +$43
weather 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.0% -27.7% 60% 40% -10.1%
≤30d 228 -11.8% -20.2% 60% 44% -12.5%
≤90d 1492 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 45% -11.0%
all 1492 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 45% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 45% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 26% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 17% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2.591036090653017% → late -1.6307071803004831% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1126 / 366
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1492 / 1494
History coverage78d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Down 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 13 $202 +$21 +10%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 13 $96 +$24 +25%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $201 +$43 +21%
BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Juventus Utena Jun 12 $200 +$10 +5%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Jun 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$61 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$20 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$36 +35%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $82 +$34 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Sale Sharks win? Jun 06 $34 +$4 +12%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Crusaders win? Jun 06 $28 +$6 +22%
Olimpia Milano vs. Pallacanestro Brescia Jun 05 $10 +$2 +25%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5AM ET Jun 05 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$4 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Cholet Jun 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $10 +$1 +13%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$1 -9%
ITF Bistrita: Robert Guna vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya SELL Ironi Ness Ziona 79¢ $110 4h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya BUY Ironi Ness Ziona 70¢ $28 10h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya BUY Ironi Ness Ziona 72¢ $71 10h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya BUY Ironi Ness Ziona 72¢ $1 10h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 73¢ $101 35h
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 91¢ $170 37h
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 38h
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 38h
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 39h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 82¢ $97 2d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 82¢ $105 2d
BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Juventus Utena SELL BC Zalgiris Kaunas 100¢ $210 2d
Will Northampton Saints win? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Will Northampton Saints win? BUY Yes 79¢ $62 2d
Will Northampton Saints win? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2d
Will Northampton Saints win? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 2d
Will Northampton Saints win? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 2d
BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Juventus Utena BUY BC Zalgiris Kaunas 95¢ $200 2d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 100¢ $111 2d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 90¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.53 · official $116.03 (match) · 3500 history records