Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ed…092e world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$124 (-22%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$46
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$94
politics 24% −$23
sports 14% +$1
other 12% −$18
finance 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.6% -19.1% 67% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 13 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 23% -30.0%
≤90d 19 -28.5% -35.3% 32% 16% -31.1%
all 19 -28.5% -35.3% 32% 16% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 16% -31.1%
10% -41.5% 5% -37.7%
15% -47.2% 0% -43.7%
20% -52.3% 0% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage49d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 24 $43 −$15 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $13 −$4 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $33 −$18 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $81 +$5 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $26 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election May 22 $24 −$4 -17%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $76 −$21 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $9 7d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 9d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 38¢ $16 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $13 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $41 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $81 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $24 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $60 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $15 31d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 31d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 31d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 31d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 31d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $30 31d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 55¢ $19 31d
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election SELL No 16¢ $20 34d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes $8 35d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes $11 35d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes $9 35d
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes $10 35d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 77¢ $23 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records