trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 67% | 0% | -21.4% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -27.4% | -34.3% | 46% | 23% | -30.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -28.5% | -35.3% | 32% | 16% | -31.1% |
| all | 19 | -28.5% | -35.3% | 32% | 16% | -31.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.3% | 16% | -31.1% |
| 10% | -41.5% | 5% | -37.7% |
| 15% | -47.2% | 0% | -43.7% |
| 20% | -52.3% | 0% | -49.3% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 24 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Jun 24 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | Jun 24 | $43 | −$15 | -35% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 18 | $13 | −$4 | -33% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin | Jun 11 | $33 | −$18 | -52% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $81 | +$5 | +6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | Jun 02 | $26 | −$2 | -9% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $15 | +$5 | +30% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $21 | +$3 | +15% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 27 | $51 | +$9 | +18% |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? | May 24 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? | May 24 | $7 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | May 24 | $20 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election | May 22 | $24 | −$4 | -17% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 19 | $10 | −$2 | -17% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 17 | $76 | −$21 | -28% |