Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08eb…9ca4 sports 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,250 (+8%) realized +$1,178 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%142W / 86L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$233
14 days+$198
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$975
world 27% +$411
politics 13% +$110
weather 11% −$36
other 10% −$294
economics 2% +$14
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +38.8% +25.6% 60% 50% +23.3%
≤30d 28 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 32% -1.3%
≤90d 198 -5.1% -14.1% 60% 29% -3.4%
all 228 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 30% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 30% -2.8%
10% -20.8% 18% -12.1%
15% -28.5% 12% -20.6%
20% -35.5% 8% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$1,178
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses142 / 86
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions9
Markets (closed)228 / 237
History coverage120d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $98 $215 +$117 (+120%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 86¢ 99¢ $90 $104 +$14 (+15%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 82¢ 91¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 27¢ 91¢ $22 $75 +$52 (+234%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 43¢ 95¢ $19 $42 +$23 (+122%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 25¢ 90¢ $11 $38 +$27 (+259%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $43 $20 −$22 (-52%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $147 $10 −$137 (-93%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 94¢ 24¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $91 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $90 +$38 +43%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $90 +$40 +44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $40 +$68 +170%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $90 +$53 +59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 +$44 +98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 −$13 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $90 +$9 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $90 +$5 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $90 −$22 -24%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $90 −$36 -40%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $148 +$8 +5%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $91 +$36 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $92 +$109 +119%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $50 +$7 +14%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 02 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $90 −$3 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 28 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? May 28 $43 −$14 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $50 −$47 -93%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $70 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $90 −$21 -23%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $90 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $100 +$129 +129%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$207 +414%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? May 06 $50 −$46 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 06 $50 −$42 -85%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $90 −$83 -92%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $1 $0 +30%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $100 −$36 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 24? Apr 25 $50 −$26 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 24? Apr 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24? Apr 24 $50 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 24? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 23? Apr 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 23? Apr 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 23? Apr 24 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23? Apr 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $88 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $91 1h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 3h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $85 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $0 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $0 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 8h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 8h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 8h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $90 9h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 9h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 12h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 12h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 12h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 14h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.67 · official $607.67 (match) · 1518 history records