Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x08ea…0751 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,567 (-4%) realized −$2,542 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%104W / 107L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$639
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$575
world 16% −$258
weather 14% −$304
crypto 12% −$444
sports 9% −$680
politics 2% −$47
culture 2% −$344
tech 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.6% +13.7% 42% 37% -18.9%
≤30d 19 +25.6% +13.7% 42% 37% -18.9%
≤90d 66 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 33% -24.0%
all 211 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 30% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 30% -13.6%
10% -23.6% 18% -21.8%
15% -31.0% 15% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$81 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses104 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage241d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 20¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$79 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $360 −$345 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$2 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $705 +$57 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$82 +134%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $151 +$67 +44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $401 +$51 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$41 -41%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $29 +$131 +455%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$199 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12AM ET May 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 25 $38 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 24 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 24 $192 −$19 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 24 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 24 $60 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 24 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8AM ET Apr 23 $20 +$41 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 23 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 23 $84 +$108 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Apr 20 $96 −$85 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28? Apr 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27? Apr 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26? Apr 20 $187 −$187 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 20 $498 −$498 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $443 +$41 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 28? Mar 27 $36 −$26 -72%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 26 $32 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $12 −$11 -99%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $50 +$22 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $501 −$451 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23? Mar 24 $136 −$136 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21? Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 24 $48 +$143 +298%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $130 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $39 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $15 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $183 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $118 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $100 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $360 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $649 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $113 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $218 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $61 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $151 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $452 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $401 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $60 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.00 · official $75.00 (match) · 1004 history records