Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08e7…193d politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$227 (+5%) realized +$227 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 32% +$106
other 26% +$181
world 15% +$6
politics 15% −$118
crypto 10% +$41
sports 1% +$3
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -2.0%
≤30d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 4 +11.5% +0.9% 100% 25% -0.1%
all 50 +1.4% -8.3% 70% 34% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 34% -5.1%
10% -17.0% 20% -14.2%
15% -25.1% 10% -22.5%
20% -32.4% 8% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage651d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $324 +$27 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $325 $0 +0%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $249 +$70 +28%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $391 +$38 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $419 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $24 +$3 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $25 $0 +2%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 16 $182 +$23 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $172 +$11 +6%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $155 +$15 +10%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 11 $153 +$4 +2%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 01 $145 +$8 +5%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 27 $165 −$19 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jan 22 $315 +$7 +2%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 29 $143 +$15 +10%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 26 $120 +$22 +18%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 13 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 25 $38 +$23 +60%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 13 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 29 $49 −$20 -40%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? Nov 10 $193 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November? Nov 09 $152 +$59 +39%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 07 $146 +$7 +5%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 06 $48 −$22 -46%
Trump claims victory before AP calls the election? Nov 06 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in October? Nov 01 $4 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 28 $36 −$28 -77%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Oct 05 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Biden finish his term? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
$BTC dips below $50k before October? Oct 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Oct 01 $6 $0 -3%
Will there be another debate? Oct 01 $1 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Penn Sep 24 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Donald Trump say "million" 10 or more times during his North Caro Sep 22 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Nort Sep 21 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum above $2,400 on September 20? Sep 20 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Unio Sep 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "China" 5 or more times during his Uniondale ral Sep 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Mich Sep 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "China" 5 or more times during his Michigan town Sep 18 $4 +$3 +67%
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate? Sep 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $351 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY $1 30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $130 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $325 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $325 32d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 40d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 77¢ $249 54d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $174 64d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $174 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $218 90d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $218 90d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $111 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.69 · official $19.69 (match) · 161 history records